If you haven’t
noticed by now, when I talk about limited strategy or theory I end up talking
about the Limited Resources Podcast (www.lrcast.com). Today is
going to be no different, and there is a reason why. The LR hosts are
responsible for creating and expanding upon language drafters can use as a basis
for argumentation and evaluation. This combined with being the first podcast on
Magic I listened to have made them one of my biggest Magic influences. They’ve
also done their fair share of fighting for clarity and against the hyperbole
that I find obscures great discussion in Magic. Today, I want to talk about one
of the first concepts I really felt I had a handle on, and was able to employ
in my draft strategy, avoiding BCSM or Best Case Scenario Mentality.
BCSM is the
general tendency to evaluate a card based on the best situation we can think of
casting it, regardless of how likely it is to happen. The standard example is
when evaluating a card like fog that prevents all combat damage in a turn. The
BCSM is to think about casting fog on an opponent’s Alpha Strike (A term used
to describe when you attack with all your creatures) allows us to Alpha Strike
back and win the game! Sounds awesome, if only that were the most likely
situation we would find ourselves in a game. We can all come to a time when
having fog in our hand would have meant we were going to win and come up with
these Alpha Strike scenarios, but how many times can you think of where it
would have been useless? This is harder, partly because our brains aren’t wired
for negatives and remembering counterexamples. We remember “things that were”
and have trouble remembering “things that were not.”
This was one of
those lessons I picked up on right away, and quickly fought off the BCSM as I
evaluated cards. Fog became a card I never picked up, sure if it was the last
card in the pack I will take it, but I didn’t think I ever had a deck that
“wanted” fog. Sure I still get excited when I think of a cool interaction or
situation where only one card will save you, but it didn’t color my picks for
drafting things higher than I needed to. I think one of the most recent
examples of BCSM is the Ensoul Artifact + Ornithopter.dek. At a local store
every draft I watched there was at least two people trying to get this deck to
work, sometimes up to five people. Ensoul and Citadel were first picks,
Ornithopters were taken in the first 7 picks. These cards were just so
powerful, turn 1 Ornithopter , turn 2 Ensoul. Can’t go wrong! Your opponent
can’t beat a Dragon on turn two (Dragon generally refers to a 4+ power flyer,
the iconic Shivan Dragon is where it comes from which was at one time the best
creature in the game). The problem is ignoring the likelihood of getting the
exact cards you need, and what you were giving up by trying to play this deck,
and drafting the key pieces highly. When a deck like this works it is because
you are getting the key components as the 8th pick or later in a
draft.
I like this newer
example because it hits a part of BCSM that isn’t talked about as much, and is
a trap I recently caught myself falling into while studying a previous draft.
How many times do you end up playing your first two picks in a draft? If you
are like me, probably a much higher time than you probably should be. Looking
back at one draft I took Shu Yun the Silent Tempest and then Sandblast. Both I
believe are fine picks in early stages of a draft. Shu Yun is powerful and
Sandblast is solid (but not quite premium) removal. Pick 3 the powerful picks
were Reach of Shadows, Douse in Gloom, and Abzan Beastmaster. The “on color”
picks were Arashan Cleric and Abzan Advantage. I took Abzan Advantage because
it fit better in an aggressive U/W or Jeskai Deck. I wasn’t passed something
third pick that said either color was open, and getting a clear signal in the
third pick requires a huge signal, and even then a color can dry up quickly.
It’s okay to use your color preference based on previous picks as a tie
breaker, or when the cards are close in power. It is not okay to pull a “me”
and speculate you will definitely be in a certain deck 3 picks in. I’ve been a
huge proponent of staying open when I talk to newer drafters, or when
discussing draft strategy with others and I now wonder just how many times I’m
staying open and reading signals versus falling into the BCSM trap in my picks.
It’s something for me to think about in my next few drafts, and to make sure
I’m back on the right train with my thinking.
The next time you
are in pick three and four stop and really think about what you are seeing in
the pack. Is there a clear best card? If you see one, take it as your pick and
move on. Avoid the trap of thinking about whether there is a clear better card
for “your deck”, you don’t have a deck yet, and this is a sure fire way to
always “think” you are in the colors of your first pick. Staying open is tough,
and can lead to some anxious moments the later in draft you feel like you are
open, but I do think it is a good way to step up your limited game. As always
feel free to send in some constructive comments, your thoughts, and your
questions. Until Next time, May the variance be with you.
----
D.
@DJKMtG
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